Cape of Good Hope closed
Closure scenariosEverything still gets through – 3.5 million barrels a day take the long way round, about 1 days longer.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
0
Goes the long way round
3.5 million
extra days at sea
+1
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | – | 15% (+1 d) | 1,773 |
| India | – | 13% (+1 d) | 632 |
| South Korea | – | 19% (+1 d) | 535 |
| USA | – | 8% (+1 d) | 519 |
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.