Danish Straits closed
Closure scenarios2.0 million barrels a day have no alternative route – the sea behind this strait is closed.
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No way out
2.0 million
Goes the long way round
0
extra days at sea
–
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 25% | – | 1,201 |
| Poland | 96% | – | 495 |
| Finland | 96% | – | 166 |
| Lithuania | 90% | – | 158 |
Exporters
- Russia25% cannot sell · 1,201
- Saudi Arabia6% cannot sell · 344
- Norway20% cannot sell · 337
- United Kingdom11% cannot sell · 52
- Guyana2% cannot sell · 13
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.