Suez Canal / SUMED closed
Closure scenariosEverything still gets through – 3.4 million barrels a day take the long way round, about 23 days longer.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
0
Goes the long way round
3.4 million
extra days at sea
+23
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | – | 39% (+20 d) | 1,848 |
| Poland | – | 52% (+25 d) | 269 |
| Netherlands | – | 23% (+20 d) | 224 |
| Greece | – | 43% (+29 d) | 208 |
| Italy | – | 14% (+29 d) | 160 |
| Turkey | – | 25% (+28 d) | 150 |
| Spain | – | 8% (+23 d) | 105 |
| France | – | 11% (+24 d) | 102 |
| Germany | – | 6% (+29 d) | 101 |
| Belgium | – | 13% (+25 d) | 80 |
| Lithuania | – | 43% (+25 d) | 75 |
| Bulgaria | – | 33% (+31 d) | 43 |
| Austria | – | 16% (+32 d) | 24 |
| Serbia | – | 41% (+26 d) | 22 |
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.