Suez Canal / SUMED closed
Closure scenariosEverything still gets through – 3.1 million barrels a day take the long way round, about 22 days longer.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
0
Goes the long way round
3.1 million
extra days at sea
+22
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | – | 36% (+20 d) | 1,782 |
| Poland | – | 48% (+25 d) | 242 |
| Greece | – | 39% (+29 d) | 164 |
| Turkey | – | 23% (+28 d) | 150 |
| Netherlands | – | 13% (+18 d) | 141 |
| Spain | – | 10% (+23 d) | 128 |
| Italy | – | 9% (+28 d) | 102 |
| France | – | 10% (+23 d) | 91 |
| Lithuania | – | 47% (+25 d) | 89 |
| Belgium | – | 13% (+25 d) | 80 |
| Germany | – | 5% (+27 d) | 76 |
| Bulgaria | – | 32% (+32 d) | 31 |
| Austria | – | 16% (+33 d) | 26 |
| Czechia | – | 11% (+34 d) | 15 |
| Croatia | – | 19% (+34 d) | 10 |
| Slovakia | – | 8% (+34 d) | 9 |
| Serbia | – | 11% (+26 d) | 5 |
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.