Bab el-Mandeb closed
Closure scenariosEverything still gets through – 2.5 million barrels a day take the long way round, about 21 days longer.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
0
Goes the long way round
2.5 million
extra days at sea
+21
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | – | 36% (+20 d) | 1,782 |
| Turkey | – | 23% (+28 d) | 150 |
| Greece | – | 30% (+27 d) | 129 |
| Netherlands | – | 12% (+17 d) | 124 |
| France | – | 8% (+21 d) | 70 |
| Germany | – | 4% (+26 d) | 63 |
| Italy | – | 5% (+25 d) | 58 |
| Spain | – | 5% (+18 d) | 56 |
| Bulgaria | – | 18% (+28 d) | 17 |
| Austria | – | 3% (+26 d) | 5 |
| Serbia | – | 11% (+26 d) | 5 |
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.