Bab el-Mandeb closed
Closure scenariosEverything still gets through – 2.6 million barrels a day take the long way round, about 21 days longer.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
0
Goes the long way round
2.6 million
extra days at sea
+21
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | – | 39% (+20 d) | 1,848 |
| Greece | – | 34% (+27 d) | 165 |
| Turkey | – | 25% (+28 d) | 150 |
| Netherlands | – | 15% (+17 d) | 144 |
| Italy | – | 8% (+25 d) | 88 |
| France | – | 8% (+21 d) | 75 |
| Germany | – | 4% (+26 d) | 66 |
| Spain | – | 3% (+18 d) | 34 |
| Bulgaria | – | 19% (+28 d) | 25 |
| Serbia | – | 41% (+26 d) | 22 |
| Austria | – | 3% (+26 d) | 5 |
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.