Strait of Hormuz closed
Closure scenarios6.5 million barrels a day have no way out; 4.1 million still get through, but about 3 days later.
Saudi Arabia reroutes 4.1 million barrels a day through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
6.5 million
Goes the long way round
4.1 million
extra days at sea
+3
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 29% | 14% (+3 d) | 4,795 |
| India | 23% | 13% (+5 d) | 1,748 |
| South Korea | 23% | 35% (+3 d) | 1,607 |
| Japan | 11% | 40% (+3 d) | 1,188 |
| USA | 8% | – | 538 |
| Greece | 34% | – | 165 |
| Turkey | 25% | – | 150 |
| Netherlands | 15% | – | 144 |
| Italy | 8% | – | 88 |
| France | 8% | – | 75 |
| Germany | 4% | – | 66 |
| Spain | 3% | – | 34 |
| Bulgaria | 19% | – | 25 |
| Serbia | 41% | – | 22 |
| Austria | 3% | – | 5 |
Exporters
- Saudi Arabia5% cannot sell · 313
- Iraq100% cannot sell · 3,566
- Iran88% cannot sell · 1,409
- Kuwait70% cannot sell · 818
- Qatar87% cannot sell · 436
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.