Today: Hormuz shut, East-West pipeline at reduced capacity
● Happening now · as of 2026-10-03Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz formally closed since 28 February 2026; some ships pass without AIS under US escort, and on 1 October a tanker was hit in the strait. The East-West pipeline to Yanbu, shut after drone strikes on 11 September, has been running again since 28 September at about 3.5 million barrels a day – less than before the attack. This scenario uses 2025 trade volumes as the baseline – the structure of dependence before the crisis – not current flows: it shows who depends on what, not who is receiving oil today.
9.4 million barrels a day have no way out; 2.6 million still get through, but about 3 days later.
Saudi Arabia reroutes 2.6 million barrels a day through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah carries at most 1.5 million barrels a day, so 1.3 million barrels a day of UAE oil has no way out of the Gulf.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
9.4 million
Goes the long way round
2.6 million
extra days at sea
+3
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 33% | 14% (+3 d) | 5,502 |
| India | 49% | – | 2,447 |
| South Korea | 24% | 34% (+3 d) | 1,608 |
| Japan | 49% | – | 1,166 |
| USA | 8% | – | 519 |
| Turkey | 23% | – | 150 |
| Greece | 30% | – | 129 |
| Netherlands | 12% | – | 124 |
| France | 8% | – | 70 |
| Germany | 4% | – | 63 |
| Italy | 5% | – | 58 |
| Spain | 5% | – | 56 |
| Bulgaria | 18% | – | 17 |
| Austria | 3% | – | 5 |
| Serbia | 11% | – | 5 |
Exporters
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.
Sources: UANI Iran Shipping Update, 2 Oct 2026 · wnp.pl, 28 Sept 2026: East-West pipeline resumes, ~3.5 mb/d · Bloomberg, 11 Sept 2026: Saudi pipeline that bypasses Hormuz shut after attacks · Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis