Today: Hormuz shut, East-West pipeline offline
● Happening now · as of 2026-09-18Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since 28 February 2026 – around five ships a day instead of a hundred. On 11 September Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline to Yanbu, the main bypass, after drone strikes on its pumping stations. This scenario uses 2024 trade volumes as the baseline – the structure of dependence before the crisis – not current flows: it shows who depends on what, not who is receiving oil today.
10.7 million barrels a day have no alternative route – the sea behind this strait is closed.
The East-West pipeline to Yanbu is offline in this scenario – Saudi exports from the Gulf have no way out either.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
10.7 million
Goes the long way round
0
extra days at sea
–
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 43% | – | 4,795 |
| India | 37% | – | 1,748 |
| South Korea | 58% | – | 1,607 |
| Japan | 51% | – | 1,188 |
| USA | 8% | – | 538 |
| Greece | 34% | – | 165 |
| Turkey | 25% | – | 150 |
| Netherlands | 15% | – | 144 |
| Italy | 8% | – | 88 |
| France | 8% | – | 75 |
| Germany | 4% | – | 66 |
| Spain | 3% | – | 34 |
| Bulgaria | 19% | – | 25 |
| Serbia | 41% | – | 22 |
| Austria | 3% | – | 5 |
Exporters
- Saudi Arabia73% cannot sell · 4,421
- Iraq100% cannot sell · 3,566
- Iran88% cannot sell · 1,409
- Kuwait70% cannot sell · 818
- Qatar87% cannot sell · 436
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.
Sources: Bloomberg, 11 Sep 2026: Saudi pipeline that bypasses Hormuz shut after attacks · Al Jazeera, 12 Sep 2026: Saudi Arabia shuts critical oil pipeline · UANI Iran Shipping Update, 1 Sep 2026 · Wikipedia: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis