Turkish Straits closed
Closure scenarios2.1 million barrels a day have no way out; 288 thousand still get through, but about 0 days later.
Kazakhstan reroutes 288 thousand barrels a day across the Caspian and the BTC pipeline to Ceyhan – the port of Aktau and Caspian tankers cap this at about 300 thousand.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
2.1 million
Goes the long way round
288 thousand
extra days at sea
+0
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 12% | – | 624 |
| Turkey | 93% | – | 600 |
| Netherlands | – | 22% (+0 d) | 228 |
| Germany | 13% | – | 208 |
| France | 16% | – | 145 |
| Italy | 11% | – | 117 |
| Austria | 57% | – | 96 |
| Greece | 18% | – | 78 |
| Romania | 34% | – | 62 |
| Belgium | – | 10% (+0 d) | 60 |
| Bulgaria | 52% | – | 50 |
| Spain | 4% | – | 49 |
| United Kingdom | 5% | – | 38 |
| Serbia | 64% | – | 28 |
| Czechia | 18% | – | 25 |
| Croatia | 30% | – | 16 |
Exporters
- Kazakhstan59% cannot sell · 900
- Russia20% cannot sell · 974
- Iraq5% cannot sell · 167
- Azerbaijan8% cannot sell · 29
- Libya2% cannot sell · 21
- Guyana3% cannot sell · 17
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.