Turkish Straits closed
Closure scenarios2.1 million barrels a day have no way out; 299 thousand still get through, but about 0 days later.
Kazakhstan reroutes 299 thousand barrels a day across the Caspian and the BTC pipeline to Ceyhan – the port of Aktau and Caspian tankers cap this at about 300 thousand.
Simulate on the interactive map →
No way out
2.1 million
Goes the long way round
299 thousand
extra days at sea
+0
Who is hit?
| Country | cut off | delayed | thousand b/d |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 14% | – | 647 |
| Turkey | 99% | – | 600 |
| Germany | – | 13% (+0 d) | 213 |
| Italy | 16% | – | 176 |
| Netherlands | 15% | – | 149 |
| Greece | 27% | – | 131 |
| France | 12% | – | 108 |
| Austria | – | 56% (+0 d) | 86 |
| Bulgaria | 53% | – | 70 |
| Belgium | 10% | – | 60 |
| Spain | 4% | – | 53 |
| Romania | 28% | – | 48 |
| Czechia | 15% | – | 20 |
| Serbia | 31% | – | 17 |
| Croatia | 25% | – | 9 |
Exporters
How this is computed
Every trade route through this strait is re-routed on the MARNET shipping network with the strait removed. Where no sea route exists, the oil is stranded. Extra days assume 12 knots. Land bypasses (Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu; the Caspian–BTC route for Kazakh crude) are included up to their capacity. Prices, stocks and market reactions are not modelled.